Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators

The last time the Florida State football team won a road game was just over two years ago, when they defeated the Florida Gators in the Gainesville swamp during the Noles’ undefeated 2023 season. This Saturday at 4:30 p.m. (weird kickoff time, right?), the Seminoles are expecting a warm welcome from the Gators as they return for their biennial visit to the swamp. The game will be televised on ESPN2 and will mark the 2025 season finale for Florida (3-8, 2-6 SEC), regardless of the outcome.

Florida State, on the other hand, is desperate not only for a road win but also to become bowl-eligible. A win on Saturday would give the Seminoles a final regular-season record of 6-6, which is 4 wins better than 2024’s record of 2-10, securing them a spot in a postseason bowl game along with the benefits that come with it. These include providing coaches 15 additional practices leading up to the bowl game, offering more opportunities for coaches to evaluate returning players (and for potential offseason negotiations), boosting recruiting opportunities, additional publicity and exposure for the university and the football program, and providing players with perks and gifts from sponsors.

This will be FSU’s (5-6, 2-6 ACC) and Florida’s 69th matchup and the 37th meeting in Gainesville. The all-time series dates back to 1958, with the Gators owning a 38-28-2 lead and wins in four of the last six. In these last six contests, Florida has outscored FSU by an average of 9.5 PPG, and outgained the Seminoles by 94.8 YPG, while averaging 403 total yards, including 190 rushing yards.

Since 2007, only four games in the series have been decided by single-digit margins, surprisingly including three of the last four contests (2023, 2022, 2021, and 2014). Both teams have experienced significant winning streaks in recent years; Florida won six consecutive games against FSU from 2004-2009, while the Seminoles had a five-game winning streak against the Gators from 2013-2017.

The Gators’ key offensive weapon is running back Jadan Baugh, who needs just 96 rushing yards to become UF’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Kelvin Taylor in 2015. Baugh is one of only three FBS players, the only one in the SEC, with at least 30 receptions, 900 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns this season. He enters the game with 904 rushing yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and has scored six rushing and eight total touchdowns. Baugh also leads all SEC running backs with 33 receptions and 210 receiving yards, and he has gained 601 yards after contact this season.

On defense, the Gators rank 18th in overall tackling grade (87.9) per PFF, and have only allowed 11 passing scores this season, tied for 21st-fewest in the FBS and third in the SEC (LSU & Georgia). Florida has only missed 95 tackles compared to 144 last year. LB Myles Graham leads the Gators defense in tackles (68), stops (33), and quarterback hurries (6), while ranking second in pass breakups (4) and tackles-for-loss (6.0).

GAME TRIVIA:

• UF Interim Head Coach Billy Gonzales and FSU Head Coach Mike Norvell first coached against each other in 2012. That season, Gonzales was the Co-OC/WR Coach at Illinois, and Norvell was the OC/QB Coach at Arizona State. They would not be on opposing sidelines again until 2021, when Gonzales was the Passing Game Coordinator/WR Coach at Florida, and Norvell was in his second year as Head Coach at FSU.

• Former Seminole DB Harold Stubbs IV spent three years at FSU from 2022-24 before joining the Gators as a walk-on in the summer of 2025.

According to FanDuel, Florida State is a 1.5-point underdog, with the over/under set at 49.5 points.

As we await the kickoff, enjoy some highlights from FSU’s last win over the Gators in the swamp in 2023.

• Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.

• Then look over and digest all the FREE PRE-GAME CONTENT we’ve posted leading up to this game.

• We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.

• NoleThruandThru (season record: 4-7)

What a week it’s been to get to this point. I thought I’d lost all confidence in the squad prior to NC State, but with that performance and watching Mike Norvell’s body language in several pressers since then, I just can’t see how he can coach this team to a victory in the Swamp. He looks and sounds like a broken human, and teams take on the personalities of their coaches.

The Gators, on the other hand, have nothing to lose and will likely play hard for their interim coach and seniors. I’m expecting a huge day from DJ Lagway and Jaden Baugh as they hope to maximize their NIL/portal markets, and another complete dud of a showing from the Seminoles. Leave Papuchis, Tokarz, Storms, and Yray in Gainesville and let ‘em walk home. This 2025 season can’t end soon enough.

UF 31, FSU 13

• Tim Scribble (season record: 6—5)

Outside of the two cupcake games early in the season, this has been the most unpredictable Florida State team. You think they’re going to win, they lose. Think a loss is coming, well, you’re probably right. I think FSU could easily lose this game, but let’s go with the unpredictable Seminoles taking this game.

• Jordan Silversmith (season record: 6-5)

After another disastrous performance away from home against NC State, Florida State takes its show on the road as Mike Norvell’s team tries to find its first road win in the last game of the season. Nothing that happened last week against the Wolfpack inspires confidence that FSU can find a way to win, even though the Gators do not appear to be much better. Saturday should be a sloppy affair, with whoever makes the fewest mistakes wins. But of course, why would Florida State be the team that makes the fewest errors? The Gators will present too many challenges along the line of scrimmage, and the Noles are not adept in other areas. Take the under and the loss.

UF 24, FSU 21

• Curt Weiler (season record: 4-7)

Maybe it’s the holiday spirit in me, but I’m feeling (a bit) more confident about Florida State this week. How could the FSU administration’s vote of confidence in Mike Norvell this week not inspire an improved performance? Maybe I’m just not willing to entertain the alternative against this Florida team, which lost to Kentucky by 31 points. The offseason vibes are already going to be weird around the program for the next nine months. I’d advise FSU not to lose this game, or they will be downright toxic.

FSU 28, Florida 20

• Matt Minnick (season record: 5-6; 7-4 ATS)

My record player broke the other day. The stylus fell clean off. Goes to show how much we’ve been enjoying our Andrew Duhon and Stephen Wilson, Jr. albums lately. Fortunately, Guitar Center is a fantastic place for music equipment of all kinds (gotta be your go-to if you live in the Tally area), so the holiday music will be enjoyed by all come Friday.

What’s the point of all this? It’s because when I started writing this prediction, I realized how much of a broken record I sound like. Statistically speaking, FSU should beat its arch-rival. Once heralded QB prospect DJ Lagway has been awful for the Gators, and their run game has been anemic, going for under 130 yards in three of their last four games. Meanwhile, defensively, the Gators have given up 237, 259, and 256 on the ground over the last three weeks.

And yet, I cannot pick FSU with any confidence at all. Their performance on the road has been downright terrible. And Norvell’s team seemingly creates new ways to lose on a game-by-game basis. Would anyone be surprised if FSU lost on a punt return for a TD with 40 seconds left, after an illegal procedure negated a 3rd down conversion that would seal the game? Exactly.

UF 23, FSU 18

• Perry Kostidakis (season record: 4-7; 4-7 ATS)

Everything on paper says that Florida State should win this game — records, stats, soft factors. But everything on paper also says that Florida State should have won 10 of its 11 games so far this year, so forgive me if I’m feeling a bit distrustful. The Gators are hamstrung by injury, experiencing a season that has DJ Lagway questioning everything, and still, I feel like I’m deluding myself by being confident in an FSU win.

We’ve seen the Seminoles struggle to handle road environments for two straight years, and it should only get worse against a desperate-for-any-feeling-of-joy Florida crowd that literally just has this game and the ever-eroding possibility of Lane Kiffin to fuel itself.

I’ve never seen Florida State lose in the Swamp in person. Unfortunately, I think that streak comes to an end on Saturday.

UF 17, FSU 13

• Frank DaNole (season record: 5-6)

One of the reasons why Florida State will win this game is that the FSU players will play with more pride, give 112% more effort, they will want it more, and will play with more heart, than their filthy opponent.

Another reason why FSU will win is because this will be a SOD game, and the Noles are hell bent on returning the disrespect shown last season with the gator flag being planted on the Seminole logo.

Say what you will about Norvell, but he didn’t take any guff and let disgraced, fired gator coach Billy Napier know how he felt about it before ripping away and throwing the flag.

The gators may have still been upset about the prior years incident with Jamari Lyons, who gator fans felt was unjustly ejected for this simple misunderstanding.

But the Noles had the last laugh that night.

However, the biggest reason the Seminoles will leave hogsville with swamp SOD on Saturday is that a FSU win on Saturday will earn embattled coach Mike Norvell an additional $100,000 bonus by becoming bowl eligible. His players will play their best game of the season so he can get his bonus to make up for everything the fans and media have put him through this season. Win it for Mike.

FSU Seminoles 38, Hogtown turds 24

Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

• Recruiting: Blue-chip offensive lineman Da’Ron Parks decommits from Florida State

• Recruiting: Edge rusher Damaad Lewis commits to FSU

• Roundtable: Discussing FSU’s decision to keep Mike Norvell

• Column: FSU continues to throw good money after bad by retaining Mike Norvell

• Column: FSU will keep Mike Norvell for 2026 season

• Column: FSU’s nightmare ending vs. NC State furthers the feeling that Norvell’s tenure is cursed

• TN Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators

• Depth Chart: FSU releases depth chart for matchup vs. UF

• How To Watch: Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators: How to watch, stream, odds

• Media Monday: “Our focus is on doing everything in our power to go get our sixth win:” Mike Norvell talks UF matchup, administration’s decision to retain him

• Norvell says FSU is “not even close to living up to expectations” as Seminoles finish 2-6 in ACC play

• RECRUITING THREAD #4 is up– NoleThruandThru and Josh Pick keep you up to date on the LATEST FSU RECRUITING NEWS @ Tomahawk Nation’s hub for all things relating to Florida State football recruiting-FSU Football: OFFICIAL #Tribe26 Recruiting and Transfer Portal Thread #4

Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators: How to watch, stream, odds

Date

• Friday, November 29th

Time

• 4:30 p.m. ET

Watch/Stream

• Channel: ESPN2

• Stream: WatchESPN/ESPN App

Listen

• Seminoles Radio Network

• FSU Broadcast: : Ch. 117 or 194/SXM App

Spread

• +1.5, Florida State

Over/Under

• 49.5 points