Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire. In fact, we get into it ourselves when the time comes and will throughout the 2025 Ohio State and college football season.
But if you've followed us at all, you know we like to check in on what the ESPN 'matchup predictor' says about the probability of Ohio State winning each game on its schedule every week. The ESPN computers always adjust the percentages after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWe don't know what goes into making the sausage; we just report on it for your consumption.
The Buckeyes continued their domination of opponents by dismantling Rutgers on Saturday and will now get in the right mindset for "The Game" against Michigan. Ohio State will be looking to end a four-game losing streak to its arch-rival when it travels to Ann Arbor on Saturday, and the way that all of both teams' opponents fared in Week 13 has had an impact on what the ESPN "matchup predictor" says about Ohio State's chances of winning in the "Big House."
Here's what ESPN's matchup predictor reports after Week 13. We include games already played and the results, which in this case include an 11-0 start for the Scarlet and Gray heading into Michigan Week.
First ... Games Completed
Aug. 30 vs. Texas Longhorns
Aug 30, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) makes a catch against Texas Longhorns defensive back Malik Muhammad (5) in the first half at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn ImagesLocation | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPredicted winner | Texas (53.3%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 14-7
All-time series | Ohio State leads 3-2
Actual Record | 1-0
Sept. 6 vs. Grambling State
Grambling's Julian Calvez during their game against Pine Bluff Saturday afternoon, November 5, 2022, at the Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium at Grambling State University.Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99%)
Buckeyes win probability | 99% (no change)
Actual result | Ohio State won 77-0
All-time series | Ohio State leads 1-0
Actual running record | 2-0
Sept. 13 vs. Ohio
Dec 20, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; Ohio Bobcats quarterback Parker Navarro (13) calls a play at the line against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the third quarter at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn ImagesLocation | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 95.4%
Actual result | Ohio State won 37-9
All-time series | Ohio State leads 8-0
Actual running record | 3-0
Sept. 27 at Washington
Nov 11, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) celebrate after Odunze scored a touchdown against the Utah Utes during the second half at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY SportsLocation | Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementPredicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 68.8%
Actual result | Ohio State won 24-6
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-3
Actual running record | 4-0
Oct. 4 vs. Minnesota
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 94.7% (up from 94.2%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 42-3
All-time series | Ohio State leads 49-7
Actual running record | 5-0
Nov. 11 at Illinois
Nov 23, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema looks on during the second half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn ImagesLocation | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, Illinois)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 82.3% (up from 81%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 34-16
All-time series | Ohio State leads 70-30-4
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementActual running record | 6-0
Oct. 18 at Wisconsin
Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is shown during their game Friday, August 30, 2024 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 28-14.Location | Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 94.8% (up from 91%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 34-0
All-time series | Ohio State leads 64-18-5
Actual running record | 7-0
Nov. 1 vs. Penn State
COLUMBUS, OHIO - OCTOBER 21: Kaden Saunders #7 of the Penn State Nittany Lions celebrates his fourth quarter touchdown with teammates Dante Cephas #3 and Tyler Warren #44 of the Penn State Nittany Lions during a game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 88.1% (up from 87.9%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 38-14
All-time series | Ohio State leads 27-14
Actual running record | 8-0
Nov. 8 at Purdue
Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Dillon Thieneman (31) celebrates after getting a tackle during the NCAA football game against the Fresno State Bulldogs, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Fresno State Bulldogs won 39-35.Location | Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBuckeyes win probability | 97.1% (down from 97.3%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 34-10
All-time series | Ohio State leads 44-15-2
Actual running record | 9-0
Nov. 15 vs. UCLA
Sep 4, 2021; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins wide receiver Kyle Philips (2) celebrates with offensive lineman Paul Grattan (65) offensive lineman Jon Gaines II (57) and tight end Greg Dulcich (85) his touchdown scored against the Louisiana State Tigers during the second half the at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY SportsLocation | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 98.3% (down from 98.4%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 38-10
All-time series | Ohio State leads 5-4-1
Actual running record | 10-0
Nov. 22 vs. Rutgers
Dec 26, 2024; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano reacts after losing to the Kansas State Wildcats in the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn ImagesLocation | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 96.9% (up from 96.8%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 42-9
All-time series | Ohio State leads 11-0
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementActual running record | 11-0
Next ... Only remaining game to be played in the regular season for Ohio State
Nov. 29 at Michigan
Nov 18, 2017; Madison, WI, USA; An Michigan Wolverines helmet during the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY SportsLocation | Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 78.2% (down from 80.6%)
All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6
Projected running record | 12-0
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Ohio State football win probability for Michigan game updated by ESPN
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