NFL Panic Meter: Colts were 7-1, and now aren't a lock to even make the playoffs

When you start a season 7-1, making the playoffs should be a foregone conclusion.

The Indianapolis Colts still have a good chance to make the playoffs. But it's not guaranteed anymore.

The Colts have lost three of four games. They find themselves in a tie for first place of the AFC South with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the surging Houston Texans are just a game behind. In the AFC wild-card race, there are three 8-4 teams, a 7-5 team and two 6-6 teams, one of which is the Chiefs. There is a path for the Colts to go from the NFL's best record around the midpoint of the season to being out of the playoffs.

Losing three out of four games isn't ideal, but it's not the main reason for concern with the Colts. It's how they've looked in their last four games.

The Colts' offense has come back to earth after a hot start. In their first eight games, the Colts averaged 385.3 yards per game. In the latest three losses, that is down to 301.3. Points per game has gone from 33.8 in their first eight games to 18.7 in the three recent losses. The Colts did get 519 yards and 31 points in a Week 10 win over the Atlanta Falcons, but needed every bit of that just to sneak by a 4-8 Falcons team in overtime.

Daniel Jones got a lot of credit when the Colts were hot, though there was some skepticism over whether he'd suddenly hit a new level and it could continue. There has been blame for him as the Colts have slid down the standings. He reportedly is playing through a fractured fibula, which has to affect his play. He's not the only issue. Jonathan Taylor was making an MVP case, but in the Colts' three recent losses he has 188 rushing yards combined. Nothing about the offense looks as sharp as it was early in the season, and the Colts are in for more losses if it doesn't turn back around. An injury to defensive tackle DeForest Buckner hasn't been great for the defense, and a calf injury that knocked new cornerback Sauce Gardner out of Sunday's game is another concern.

The Colts could rebound, win the division and make everyone forget about this midseason slump. There's also a chance the Jaguars, Texans or both pass them in the AFC South and they're remembered as a team that squandered a 7-1 start. The latter might lead to major changes in Indianapolis.

Panic meter: The Colts didn't get to 7-1 by mistake, they should be fine, but there's a sweat now

Are the Ravens just not very good?

The old Bill Parcells line, "You are what your record says you are," is misleading. There's more nuance than that. But then every once in a while, there's a team like the 2025 Baltimore Ravens and the quote seems appropriate.

The Ravens had a four-game winning streak, which was built by playing a series of weak opponents. The Ravens didn't play particularly well in most of those wins but it didn't matter much because they kept winning and got back into a first-place tie in the AFC North after a 1-5 start. But that whole stretch looked different after the Bengals beat the Ravens 32-14 in Baltimore, which knocked Baltimore back to 6-6 this season. It's a lot tougher to believe the Ravens have a long January run anymore. It's not like they'll be facing the Vikings, Browns or Jets in the playoffs.

The Ravens defense reverted to its poor early season form, and Lamar Jackson still hasn't gotten back on track after a hamstring injury cost him a few games. The Ravens should still be favored to win the AFC North, though that's not guaranteed. And any Super Bowl dreams need to be put away for now.

Panic meter: This season won't end how the Ravens had hoped it would

Kyler Murray still not coming back

On Nov. 1, Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon said that Jacoby Brissett would start against Dallas instead of Kyler Murray, but Murray could possibly have a role in the offense. That didn't happen. Murray suddenly went on IR and hasn't practiced since. That seemed odd. On Monday, a month after Gannon had said Murray could play in some fashion against Dallas, the Cardinals coach said that Murray wouldn't have his practice window opened because he's "not quite there yet."

"He's working every day," Gannon told the media on Monday. "I know he wants to be out there. It's just unfortunate right now."

Even though there were reports detailing Murray's injury after he was put on IR, everyone involved would have reason to play up the injury and preemptively downplay the cynical view that this is a way for the Cardinals and Murray to begin the process of parting ways. As of now, Murray isn't coming back, and there should be plenty of questions about what comes next.

Panic meter: If you're a Cardinals fan who supports Murray, it's not looking great

Ashton Jeanty's rookie struggles

Jeanty was picked sixth overall by the Las Vegas Raiders, which was probably a foolish pick for a rebuilding team but there was no questioning Jeanty's status as a prospect. He was one of the best running back prospects ever. And he's having a very quiet rookie season.

Against the Chargers Sunday, Jeanty had 31 yards on 15 carries, the third straight game he has averaged fewer than three yards a carry. He hasn't topped 3.2 yards per carry in five straight games. The Raiders are last in the NFL in rushing yards and last in rushing yards per carry. Jeanty's Pro Football Focus grade ranks him 29th among 38 running backs with at least 100 carries. It hasn't been good.

It's not all Jeanty's fault, of course. The offensive line is bad. Chip Kelly wasn't a good fit as offensive coordinator and he has been fired. But the sixth overall pick at running back should reach 1,000 yards in 17 games. Jeanty isn't even on pace to gain 900. Nobody is giving up on Jeanty, considering his talent and the mess that is the Raiders. But this has been a big disappointment.

Panic meter: Give it at least another season, but it's certainly a slow start