Frank SchwabSenior writerTue, December 2, 2025 at 4:07 AM UTC·18 min readNFC East: Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington CommandersNFC North: Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota VikingsNFC South: Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC West: Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Rams | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle SeahawksAFC East: Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York JetsAFC North: Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh SteelersAFC South: Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee TitansAFC West: Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers
Of the first seven teams to win 15 games in an NFL regular season, only two didn't make the playoffs the following season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe 2008 New England Patriots went 11-5 without Tom Brady, who suffered a torn ACL in the opener, and missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers. Not too bad, just unlucky. The only real airball after a 15-win season was the 2016 Carolina Panthers, who went 6-10. Everyone else had double-digit wins.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions are both in danger of joining the group of 15-win teams to miss the playoffs a season later. Plenty has been said about the Chiefs and the possibility of them missing the playoffs. The Lions potentially missing out snuck up on everyone, but it became real on Thanksgiving. A loss to the Green Bay Packers pushed the Lions back to 7-5 in a crowded NFC wild-card race. DVOA's projection has the Lions' chances to make the playoffs at exactly 50%. It's a coin flip if one of the NFL's best teams over the past two seasons will even be in the postseason.
Detroit's remaining schedule isn't great. Up next is a game against a confident Cowboys team. Then Detroit plays at the Rams. There's still a game at Chicago to end the season, and Jared Goff's drop in production for outdoor games has been discussed often. The Lions will have a challenge to go 3-2 to reach 10 wins, and 10-7 isn't guaranteed to get them a playoff spot. Missing the playoffs wouldn't mean that the Lions' chance to make a Super Bowl is over with this core. It's still a fairly young team full of elite players. But it would be a wasted season of everyone's prime. And a stunning result after a dominant regular season a year ago.
32 (previous ranking 32): Tennessee Titans (1-11)
Here’s a list of categories in which the Titans rank 32nd in the NFL: wins, point differential, yards gained, points scored, first downs, passing touchdowns, points per drive. They’re also second-to-last in EPA (expected points added) per play and success rate on offense. The defense is a little better but still has given up the fourth-most points and is fifth-worst in EPA per play allowed. It’s hard to keep the Raiders out of the bottom spot, but the Titans have done it. It’s a historically bad team.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement31 (31): Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
The Raiders drafted a running back with the sixth pick of the draft, a move that was a bit confusing for a rebuilding team. They’re somehow last in the NFL in rushing yards and yards per attempt with Ashton Jeanty playing in every single game. That’s not all on Jeanty, but it is another example of the Raiders having little clarity for their long-term plan. They wanted to be more competitive right away, even with little shot of getting out of last place in the AFC West, and instead they’ve lost 10 of 11 since beating the Patriots in Week 1.
30 (30): New Orleans Saints (2-10)
The Saints have reached 20 points in a game just twice, the last time coming back in Week 5. But it is a good sign that despite a 2-10 record, the Saints have been competitive most weeks in coach Kellen Moore’s first season. That hasn’t led to many wins but it’s a good sign going forward in the Moore era. “The fact that I’ve come up and say we’re a tenacious team, we’re a team that keeps fighting,” defensive end Cam Jordan said, according to the New Orleans Times-Picayune.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement29 (28): Arizona Cardinals (3-9)
Since a 2-0 start, the Cardinals have lost nine of 10. Seven of those losses have been by four points or less, which means they’re close. It also means they’re not executing well enough in close games. That was the case Sunday. They threw an interception in the red zone, missed a 43-yard field goal and got stuffed on a fourth-and-1 run in the fourth quarter. Plays like that are the difference in close games, and the Cardinals aren’t making those plays. "I know I get up here and it sounds like a broken record," Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett said, according to the team’s site. "But it comes down to execution."
28 (27): New York Giants (2-11)
All the Giants had to do in Week 7 was close out a 19-0 fourth quarter lead at Denver and they would have been 3-4. Instead, the Broncos scored 33 points in the fourth quarter and beat the Giants, which started a seven-game losing streak that is still ongoing. There have been promising moments for the Giants this season, but still a long way to go to get to respectability.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement27 (26): Cleveland Browns (3-9)
The Browns have had seven starting quarterbacks over the last two seasons. In two straight seasons, coach Kevin Stefanski has given up play-calling duties to his offensive coordinator, which was Ken Dorsey in 2024 and Tommy Rees in 2025. Nothing has worked. The Browns finished 32nd in offensive DVOA last season and they’re 32nd in offensive DVOA this season. If there’s a reason to move on from Stefanski, a two-time NFL Coach of the Year, it’s that he hasn’t figure out any solutions to the offense.
26 (29): New York Jets (3-9)
The Jets have suddenly won three of five games. None of the teams they beat (Bengals, Browns, Falcons) are above .500, but that might not matter. First-year coach Aaron Glenn wants wins to build some momentum, and it’s happening. “These guys never quit. They get bashed, everybody on this team gets bashed for everything and it’s OK because we know exactly what we’re trying to do. We’re going to continue to just block out all the noise and keep our focus straight ahead on that vision that we’ve got on what we’re trying to build as a team” Glenn said.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement25 (23): Minnesota Vikings (4-8)
Max Brosmer didn’t look like the answer at quarterback either. He had 126 yards and four interceptions for a 32.8 passer rating against a good Seahawks defense. The Vikings’ issue is clear: Their 69.1 passer rating as a team is the worst in the NFL. The last time a team finished a season with a passer rating under 70 was the 2021 Panthers. The Vikings have 19 interceptions in 12 games. You can’t compete with quarterback play that bad, no matter how good the rest of the roster might be.
24 (25): Washington Commanders (3-9)
Give credit to the Commanders. Their playoff hopes were done, Jayden Daniels was out due to injury, and yet they were a 2-point conversion away from beating the Broncos in overtime. Marcus Mariota, who had a very good game against a tough defense, had running back Jeremy McNichols wide open for the win but Nik Bonitto batted his pass down. Unlike most of the teams ranked behind them, the Commanders at least have the ability to be a spoiler down the stretch.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement23 (22): Atlanta Falcons (4-8)
The Falcons out-gained the Jets 389-269. But David Sills and Darnell Mooney had bad drops late in the game that kept the Jets alive. Earlier, the Falcons muffed a punt that was recovered at their 2-yard line, they missed a field goal and allowed an 83-yard kickoff return. The Falcons’ special teams have cost them multiple games. Bad teams find ways to lose games, the Falcons are a bad team, and it might cost coach Raheem Morris his job.
22 (24): Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
We shouldn’t overreact to Joe Burrow’s first game back. The Bengals looked better and got a win over the Ravens, but they’re still just 6.4% to make the playoffs according to DVOA’s projections. There’s a long way to go. The defense is still not good. But the Bengals are alive, at just two games out of first place in the AFC North. As long as Cincinnati is mathematically alive, they’ll play like it.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement21 (21): Miami Dolphins (5-7)
The odd part of the Dolphins’ three-game winning streak is they’re getting very little out of the passing game. They’ve had 173, 142 and 134 passing yards in three wins. But De’Von Achane is on a monster run, with 428 yards over those three games. He is having a great season, with more than 1,000 yards and averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He is making the Dolphins a tough out down the stretch.
20 (19): Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
The Steelers looked nothing like a .500 team on Sunday and don’t deserve to be ranked in the top half of the league. A minute into the fourth quarter they had 90 yards on offense, with 45 passing and 45 rushing. The defense ended up allowing 249 yards rushing. There isn’t anything the Steelers are doing at an above-average level lately. That’s why there were chants to fire Mike Tomlin from some of the crowd. “Man, I share their frustrations tonight. We didn’t do enough. That’s just the reality of it,” Tomlin said.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement19 (20): Carolina Panthers (7-6)
Carolina’s last six games: Lost 40-9 to the Bills, beat the Packers at Lambeau Field, lost to the 2-10 Saints at home, had 486 yards in a win at Atlanta, had 230 yards in a punchless loss at the 49ers, then on Sunday they beat the Rams, who are arguably the best team in the NFL. How do you make any sense of that pattern? The best of the Panthers has been very good, and the worst is nowhere near a .500 team. The Rams win was fantastic but good luck predicting what comes next.
18 (10): Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
It’s a big drop in the rankings, but the Ravens had been playing poorly for a while. Their lackluster play lately finally caught up to them in a 32-14 loss to the Bengals. A main problem, surprisingly, has been Lamar Jackson. Over Baltimore’s last four games, he has a passer rating of 69.7 and has rushed for only 84 yards. It seems he’s feeling the effects of a hamstring injury that caused him to miss time earlier this season. If he doesn’t get right, the Ravens are little threat to make noise in the playoffs. If they make the playoffs at all.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement17 (18): Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)
The Cowboys are playing better, but that hole they dug themselves is an issue. The Seahawks, Packers, 49ers and Lions are all ahead of the Cowboys in the wild-card race and the Panthers aren’t far behind. Even if the Cowboys win at Detroit on Thursday, there’s still a long way to go to get a playoff spot. But they’re alive after impressive wins against the Eagles and Chiefs. "We'll play anybody, anywhere," Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer said, via the team’s site. "I think you can see that by what we've done the last couple of weeks.”
16 (16): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
The Buccaneers’ record can be explained in one stat: They’ve played the third-toughest schedule, via DVOA, and that includes a game against the 3-9 Cardinals on Sunday. The Buccaneers’ outlook can be summed up with another stat: They have the second-easiest remaining schedule. The schedule softening up, combined with the return to health of key players like Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving, puts the Bucs in good position to steadily move up the rankings down the stretch.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement15 (9): Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
The Chiefs aren’t that much worse than last season. They were sixth in DVOA last season; they’re fifth this season. Their point differential was +59 last season and it’s +73 through 12 games this season. They were 16th in yards gained and ninth in yards allowed last season, and are up to fifth in yards gained and again ninth in yards allowed this season. Luck in close games has completely flipped. That’s it. But at some point, it’s a team with six losses and a real chance of missing the playoffs. They might be better than this ranking, but they’ve earned this ranking by not making enough plays when it has mattered.
14 (17): Houston Texans (7-5)
The Texans trailed the Jaguars 29-10 going into the fourth quarter of a Week 10 game. They came back to win that game, beginning a four-game winning streak. That might be a pivotal moment in the AFC playoff race. The Texans' defense has raised its level even further, and a win at Indianapolis solidifies Houston in the AFC North race. This is the type of team that could ride a late wave of momentum into a playoff run, especially with a top-ranked defense causing havoc.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement13 (15): Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
Running back Kimani Vidal has been hot and cold, but coming off a 126-yard game against the Raiders, he should maintain a role even when rookie Omarion Hampton returns from injury. The running game and defense will need to help Justin Herbert, who will be playing after getting surgery on a broken bone in his left hand.
12 (14): Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
The Jaguars don’t do anything at an elite level. They’re pretty good at stopping the run, and they’re tied for third in takeaways on defense. The rest is about average. The ups and downs of Trevor Lawrence have been well documented. But they keep winning and find themselves tied atop the AFC North. They host the Colts on Sunday, and a win would get everyone paying attention to Jacksonville as a possible division champion.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement11 (8): Detroit Lions (7-5)
The Lions haven’t won two games in a row since Week 5. The only bad loss they’ve had was at home to Minnesota, but this is life with a first-place schedule and in a tough division. The loss of cornerback Terrion Arnold, who is going to injured reserve, and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown possibly missing some time, makes the road to the playoffs even tougher. It’s a good team but the inconsistency is the reason they’re no longer in the top 10. “We dug ourselves into a little bit of a hole,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “That’s the bottom line, we are in a little bit of a hole.”
10 (6): Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
The Colts hadn’t had fewer than 300 yards in a game through their first 10 games of the season. They’ve failed to reach 300 yards in either of their last two games. Daniel Jones’ leg injury can’t help, and Jonathan Taylor has just 143 rushing yards in Indianapolis’ last two games. There was always a concern that Jones’ hot start was a bit of a mirage, and the offense’s slump is now putting a team that was once 7-1 in danger of missing the playoffs.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement9 (13): San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
Maybe it’s time to start a push for Kyle Shanahan to win NFL Coach of the Year. The 49ers have played a significant amount of games without Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, among others. They’re still 9-4 and in good shape to make the playoffs. “Looking from the outside in, if people would’ve said, ‘Hey, you guys are going to be 9-4 going into the bye and you’re not going to have Fred Warner and Nick Bosa and Kittle is going to miss the first five weeks and Brock’s going to miss six, seven games, I think a lot of people would have laughed,” Kittle said.
8 (11): Buffalo Bills (8-4)
It’s hard to tell if Sunday’s result in Pittsburgh was due to the incompetence of the Steelers’ offense or a resurgence from Buffalo’s defense. The Steelers had 166 yards and got only 10 first downs. Buffalo was allowing 317.1 yards per game before Sunday. The Bills are getting healthier on defense, and if Sunday was a sign of a big improvement, Buffalo can still be a factor this postseason. They still have a lot to prove though.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement7 (5): Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)
It’s hard to remember a team getting less out of its offensive talent than the 2025 Eagles. They returned four Pro Bowlers, the Super Bowl MVP, and one of the NFL’s best receiver duos in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith from last year’s offense. That group is 19th in points scored, 24th in yards gained and 22nd in success rate. Just about every player is performing well below their career standards. And three months into the season, it’s unlikely to fix itself and it’s getting harder to trust the Eagles going deep in the playoffs.
6 (12): Chicago Bears (9-3)
Heading into Week 13, the Bears didn’t have a win against a team with a record better than .500. They rectified that. Chicago didn’t just sneak by Philadelphia, the Bears were absolutely dominant. The key to the Bears currently being the No. 1 seed in the NFC is the running game. The Bears are second in the NFL in rushing yards, and they were able to rush for 281 yards at Philadelphia. As the weather gets worse, that’s a good strength to have.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement5 (7): Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)
The Packers might be peaking again. Since scoring just seven points in an ugly loss to the Eagles, the Packers have won three in a row and scored 27, 23 and 31 points. Beating the Lions in Detroit to complete the season sweep was impressive. Green Bay has its moments of looking like the best team in football, though most of those moments have been against Detroit. The Packers play the Bears twice in their next two games, with a game at Denver in between, so we’ll find out soon how good Green Bay is.
4 (4): New England Patriots (11-2)
The Patriots are the first 11-win team in the NFL. They’re not higher in the rankings because a lot of their work has come against the NFL’s easiest schedule, including the Giants on Monday night. That’s OK, the Patriots have mostly taken care of business against bad teams and are in position to keep pushing toward the AFC’s No. 1 seed. If the Mike Vrabel/Drake Maye combo needs just two home wins to make a Super Bowl, there’s a good chance they’ll make it. Nobody will remember their strength of schedule.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement3 (3): Denver Broncos (10-2)
The Broncos have a great record and a good shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the lingering issues kept them from moving up this week. Their offense could not put away a game against the Commanders in the fourth quarter Sunday night, whiffing on all four drives while they nursed a small lead. The defense gave up two long drives to Marcus Mariota with the game on the line, though it got the play it needed when Nik Bonitto knocked down a pass on a 2-point conversion. But Broncos coach Sean Payton believes there’s value in winning close games. “The journey of a good team’s season involves games like this, and then you believe you can do it again,” Payton said.
2 (2): Seattle Seahawks (9-3)
The longer the season goes on, the more it becomes clear that the top two teams are in the NFC West. There’s a significant gap between No. 2 and 3, not in record but in overall quality. The Seahawks are the top-ranked team in DVOA and for good reason; it’s a team that is in the top seven in offense, defense and special teams. The Seahawks will have their chance to definitively take over the top spot when they host the Rams in Week 16. That's if they don’t slip up before then, which is happening to every other good team this season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement1 (1): Los Angeles Rams (9-3)
Yes, the Rams lost at the Panthers on Sunday. If we penalized teams for a bad performance this season, we’d have crossed them all off the list by now. Someone has to be No. 1, and the Rams still have a good résumé that includes three close losses by a combined 13 points, all against teams above .500. The Seahawks have a claim to the top spot too, but let’s not forget the Rams just beat Seattle (barely) a little more than two weeks ago. The Rams keep the top spot, though that’s partially because no other team is stepping up to take it.
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