On The Bubble: Oklahoma's Outlook On The College Football Playoffs

As quickly as it came, the 2025 college football regular season has come to a close, and before one of the final playoff rankings are released tomorrow, we wanted to take a look at the teams that are, or are perceived to be, on the bubble of making the second 12-team college football playoffs. We're going to look at Notre Dame, Alabama, Oklahoma, Miami, BYU and Ole Miss and talk through what's working in their favor and what's working against their final push to the playoffs. Let's first take a look at the Oklahoma Sooners who are sitting at 10-2 on the season and are looking to clinch their first playoff berth since 2019.

When it comes to dominant defense, the Oklahoma Sooners are right there in the discussion. This team has shut down every unit they faced with the exception of Ole Miss. This season, they faced Michigan, Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU and not one of those teams were able to score over 27 points. LSU, Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn and Michigan weren't able to score over 17 points. They have one of the better resumes in the playoff hunt and were able to avoid the "bad losses" have plagued other teams in the playoff hunt in years past.

The Sooners have the No. 9 strength of record and No. 12 strength of schedule according to ESPN. They rank 12th in the FEI, 13th in the Sagarin and 16th in the ESPN football power index and all three of their rankings in the computer models are strongly bolstered by their outstanding defense. They rank 7th in the country in points allowed (13.9) and 9th in the country in yards allowed (273.6). Their grind-it-out win over Alabama on the road was impressive and it handed Kalen DeBoer his first loss at home during his tenure down in Tuscaloosa.

Simply put, it's their offense. For as good as dominant as their defense has been all season, a case could be made that they have to because of their ineffective offense. In November, the Sooners averaged 22.5 points per game which would rank them 105th in the country. Their overall ranking on the season puts them at 78th in college football in points per game. This is a very old-school, Iowa-esk approach to winning football games. Their defense can only do so much, and when you look at their schedule, the only good offense they faced this season put up 34 points. Ole Miss won time of possession in that game by more than 11 minutes because the Sooner's offense wasn't able to sustain drives and no, that wasn't because of the Rebel's shut down dominant defense.

They rank in the bottom half of the SEC in total yards per game and points per game. The Sooners also rank 45th on the FEI offensive rankings behind Arizona State, UNLV and Air Force. Their inability to consistently run the football is a major concern for this offense ahead of their post-season run. Unfortunately for their resume, some of the impressive ranked wins they had in November will no longer be ranked wins come tomorrow night. Tennessee will likely no longer be ranked and Missouri has already dropped out of the rankings. However, they will still be considered quality wins in the eyes of the committee.

My Thoughts: The conversation for Oklahoma should be where they're at in the playoff rankings not if they should get in. Based on what they've done this season with their dominant defense and good wins over Michigan, Tennessee, Alabama and Missouri they've earned their spot. Now, with that being said, I don't know if they've done enough to host and that's strictly because of their offense. Their loss to Ole Miss is a quality loss along with their loss to Texas in the Red River Shootout. But the way they lost to Texas and the way they beat Alabama, Missouri and LSU should be cause enough to drop them to being a road team in the playoffs.

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