The Chicago Bears emerged as perhaps the biggest story from Week 13 of the NFL season, dispatching the host Philadelphia Eagles on Nov. 28 and emerging with a hold on the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That adds stakes to the Dec. 7 afternoon clash at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers (8-3-1) can leapfrog the Bears (9-3) for control of the NFC North with a win, but a Chicago win would cement its seat at the table among Super Bowl contenders.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Bears came into their 24-15 win over the Eagles with a negative point differential for the season despite the impressive record. What's real and what's not about the Bears in 2025?
Has Caleb Williams become an elite NFL quarterback?
The first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft already has one win at Lambeau Field on his resume, and he's continued his development under first-year coach Ben Johnson. The quarterback didn't even need to be great in the win over Philadelphia thanks to a two-headed monster of Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift rushing the football. Williams completed only 17 of 36 passes with a touchdown and interception.
Williams still holds onto the ball a lot (league-leading 3.08 seconds), but he has taken far fewer sacks in 2025. He was brought down a league-leading 68 times last year and just 19 times so far this season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementStill, his completion percentage of 58.1% is a drop from last year and among the worst marks among qualified quarterbacks in 2025, with a slightly higher interception percentage from last year, as well.
His passer rating of 88.2 ranks him 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks, and the completion mark puts him behind, among others, Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and Dillon Gabriel.
Still, Williams is still developing and has a high ceiling, and rookie pass-catchers Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III have added some punch to the passing game. His adjusted yards gained per pass attempt are up (7.16 from 6.53 last year), and he already has 17 touchdown passes this year after throwing 20 all of last year.
The last time a quarterback ranked bottom-five in NFL completion percentage on a team that received the No. 1 seed in the playoffs? That would be Rex Grossman of the Bears in 2006.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Bears have been really good at one particular thing this season, but are they good at anything else?
Chicago Bears safety Jaquan Brisker reacts to a defensive stop against the Philadelphia Eagles.Grossman, of course, had an elite defense on his side during his time with the Bears. This year's team is great in one area: It forces a ton of interceptions. The Bears easily lead the league with 17 picks, four better than second place, with 233 interception-return yards.
That's certainly a good skill to possess, but it's often an unpredictable one that can dry up quickly. Meanwhile, as Bleacher Report notes, Chicago ranks 25th in sacks, 29th in hurry percentage, 29th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, 30th in yards per carry allowed, 27th in yards allowed and 25th in points allowed.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThat sure reads like a defense holding on by a thread, buoyed by their ability to force takeaways.
There's one other thing working in Chicago's favor on defense: Two-time Pro Bowler Jaylon Johnson is back in Chicago's secondary. Johnson left his team's Week 1 loss to the Detroit Lions with a serious groin injury but was activated in advance of the win over the Eagles, and he played 33 snaps. As he works his way back into shape, the Bears will get their best defensive player back on the field.
Fellow cornerback Kyler Gordon also returned from injury against Philadelphia, playing 34 snaps.
The schedule is full of close calls against lesser teams
The Bears sent a message with a win over Philadelphia that they could handle a powerful team. Prior to that, Chicago's game log looked like this:
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNov. 23 vs. Pittsburgh: The Bears won narrowly 31-28, with Steelers starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers sidelined by an injury. The Steelers are now 6-6 and out of the playoff picture.
Nov. 16 at Minnesota: Bears kicker Cairo Santos hit a field goal as time expired for a 19-17 win over a Vikings team that has now lost six of seven games.
Nov. 9 vs. New York Giants: The Bears won 24-20 on a pair of touchdowns with less than 4 minutes to go. The Giants are the worst team in the NFC at 2-10.
Nov. 2 at Cincinnati: Chicago won 47-42 after inexplicably blowing a 41-27 lead with 5 minutes to go, only to win on a 58-yard touchdown pass to Colston Loveland with 17 seconds left. The Bengals are just 4-8.
The Bears also won back-to-back games by a 25-24 score against the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders in late September and early October, both on the road. The Commanders are now 3-10 and the Raiders 2-10.
The Bears can only play the schedule in front of them, and they do have a quality 31-14 win over the Dallas Cowboys early in the season, but the win over the Eagles was far and away their best victory of the season.
Using Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a stat first developed by Football Outsiders that judges a team's efficiency in moving (or stopping) the football with an adjustment for quality of competition, the Bears have played back-to-back games in which the offense was truly strong. But six of the previous seven games were either below average or just slightly above according to Football Outsiders stats guru Aaron Schatz. Translation: The offense has clicked lately, but it was barely skating by before that.
There's also a rugged schedule ahead, one of the hardest remaining slates in football. Not only must Chicago face the Packers twice, it also travels to face the 49ers (9-4) and finishes the season at home against the Lions (7-5). Chicago also has a Dec. 14 game at home against Cleveland (3-9).
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Bears have transformed (in a good way) in one area
Chicago's rushing attack is top five in yards even without a household name leading the charge. After a poor run game in 2024, Chicago has leveled up with a rushing success rate that would be the best for a Chicago team since 2000, using EPA (expected points added).
And if you don't trust the respected analytical stats, you can simply look at it this way: The Bears are rushing for 153.8 yards per game, second-best in football behind the Buffalo Bills. The Packers, as it happens, allow just 98.3 rushing yards per game (eighth in NFL) and 284.8 yards overall (fourth).
In a head-to-head comparison with the Packers, it'd be fair to point out that Green Bay has some clumsy losses to Cleveland and Carolina and couldn't score against a Philadelphia team that just got bested by the Bears. The Packers do, however, have more convincing wins against the Steelers, Vikings and Giants in recent weeks than the Bears' outcomes, not to mention Green Bay's own attention-grabbing win against the Lions.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Packers also have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFC by opponent winning percentage, with two games against the Bears and single contests against division-leaders Baltimore (6-6) and Denver (10-2), plus a finale in Minnesota (4-8).
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Are the Chicago Bears actually for real? A quick dive into the numbers
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